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June 04, 2012

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Recent growth in transit ridership tends to confrim a little understood axiom I heard several years ago: The only way to get people to use transit in most American cities is to "make them poor". We know that gasoline prices have very little short-term effect on ridership. Long term however, fuel prices can affect things. The premise that increased ridership signals economic recovery is flawed. Just the opposite is more likely the case. The worse the economy over extended periods, the more likely transit riderhsip will increase as American adjust to being poorer ... as employment shifts, and housing and other costs are trimmed over time, mode choice can be affected. In brief, ridership is affected very little by brief econimic downturns, but much more by long term downturns as urban economies flex under the strains.

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